Category Archives: Probability

Misleading medical tests

Kerfuffle There’s been a kerfuffle in the media recently (March 2012) about a blood test that will with “90  per cent accuracy” predict whether people over 70 will develop Alzheimer’s Disease within three years. You can Google “test Alzheimer” to … Continue reading

Posted in Chance, Probability, Science and Medicine, Statistics | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Tossing a biased coin

Each Friday, the ever-entertaining Professor Richard Wiseman poses on his blog a problem for readers to solve. He posts the solution on Monday. (Wiseman is at the University of Hertfordshire in England, so watch out if you are several time … Continue reading

Posted in Chance, Probability, Puzzles | Tagged , | Leave a comment

How not to make money at a casino — or watch that denominator!

First, be assured, there is a sure-fire method for making money at a casino, but you’ll have to wait until (or skip ahead to) the end of the blog. The associated problem of how not to make money at roulette … Continue reading

Posted in Chance, Mathematics and Logic, Probability, Skepticism, Statistics, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment